PATTERSON RESEARCH

Quantitative research built on falsification, not optimism.

An independent research practice applying rigorous statistical methodology to alpha discovery — testing claims to destruction before deploying capital or publishing findings.

Practice

Patterson Research is an independent quantitative research practice founded by Charles Patterson. The focus is simple: apply deflation-adjusted, power-aware statistical testing to trading strategies and market anomalies, and only report what survives.

The core insight is that most published alpha is the product of multiple testing and parameter optimization. The remedy is a falsification-first methodology — deflated Sharpe ratios, parameter-fragility gates, regime-scope declarations, and confirmation holdouts that keep discovery honest.

Projects

Penrose open source · v1.0 in development

An open-source quant research engine with a falsification core. Combines deflated Sharpe ratio testing, parameter-fragility analysis, power-aware verdict taxonomy, and anti-mining deflation into a single pipeline. Built to kill bad strategies before they cost real money.

Popper in development

The qualitative counterpart to Penrose. Applies falsification principles to investment theses and narrative research — stress-testing qualitative claims with the same rigor the engine applies to quantitative ones.

Current Research

Active investigation into systematic mispricing in Kalshi weather tail markets. The favorite-longshot bias in temperature event contracts exhibits a quantifiable, fadeable structure that survives deflation-adjusted testing. Full research note forthcoming.

Writing

Substack launching soon. The first research note — on Kalshi weather tail mispricing and the falsification methodology behind the trade — will be published free. Paid tier for subsequent deep-dive theses.

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