PATTERSON RESEARCH

Research and engineering built on falsification, not optimism.

An independent practice spanning quantitative finance, AI systems architecture, and applied machine learning, building tools that stress-test claims, strategies, and systems before they cost real money.

Practice

Patterson Research is an independent research and engineering practice founded by Charles Patterson. The work spans two domains connected by a shared methodology: treat every claim (whether a trading strategy, a model's performance, or a system's reliability) as guilty until it survives rigorous testing.

Quantitative research. Applying deflation-adjusted, power-aware statistical testing to trading strategies and market anomalies. The core insight is that most published alpha is the product of multiple testing and parameter optimization. The remedy is falsification-first methodology: deflated Sharpe ratios, parameter-fragility gates, and confirmation holdouts that keep discovery honest.

AI engineering. Designing and building production AI systems: agent architectures, evaluation pipelines, and decision-support tools that hold models to the same standard. Not demos. Systems that work because they've been tested the same way you'd test a trading strategy, adversarially, with the failures counted honestly.

Projects

Penrose open source · v1.0 in development

An open-source quant research engine with a falsification core. Combines deflated Sharpe ratio testing, parameter-fragility analysis, power-aware verdict taxonomy, and anti-mining deflation into a single pipeline. Built to kill bad strategies before they cost real money.

Popper in development

The qualitative counterpart to Penrose. Applies falsification principles to investment theses and narrative research, stress-testing qualitative claims with the same rigor the engine applies to quantitative ones.

Current Research

Active investigation into systematic mispricing in Kalshi weather tail markets. The favorite-longshot bias in temperature event contracts exhibits a quantifiable, fadeable structure that survives deflation-adjusted testing. Full research note forthcoming.

Consulting

AI engineering and strategy. Available for select consulting engagements: agent architecture, evaluation pipelines, and AI adoption strategy for teams that don't want to burn budget on approaches that don't survive scrutiny.

If you have a system that needs to work reliably or a claim that needs to be tested honestly, get in touch.

Writing

Substack launching soon. The first research note, on Kalshi weather tail mispricing and the falsification methodology behind the trade, will be published free. Paid tier for subsequent deep-dive theses.

Contact